Our historical timeline begins in 1975 when an unlikely duo—Paul Allen as Batman and Bill Gates as his awkward “Boy Wonder”—started Microsoft Corporation. I’m guessing that ro-sham-bo was involved in this decision but incredibly somehow Bill was made the CEO when the company got its start. Maybe dropping out of Harvard gives you that kind of confidence.
Nothing really significant happened until they managed to modify an existing operating system for the IBM PC in 1981 from another company and rename this to MS-DOS. Significant sales of the IBM series of computers and those of their competitors then launched a thirty-year stretch of dominance in the business world in the area of operating systems, software and development platforms.
For most of us, we reasonably dismissed Apple’s hardware and the MacIntosh operating systems as nothing we could seriously use in business outside of the marketing department.
Consumers bought new versions of software and that license was good for life. It could often be transferred from one computer to the next as long as the last one was de-registered first. If you built software for Windows, you likely used a Microsoft compiler to do so and you paid for that. In fact, the Microsoft Technet collection of CDs was quite expensive.
About six years into the “Internet Tidal Wave” as Bill would call it, Microsoft was starting to lose its way. They tried to dominate in the browser wars but never quite managed to quash the competition. Others saw their efforts in this area as annoying. Their software for creating programs, Visual Studio, first hit the scene about four years prior to this.
Google was founded some five years prior and was just beginning to get attention from an investor before they had anything real yet. In 1999 they moved from their garage to an actual building in Palo Alto. Yahoo’s popularity as a search engine from a decade ago was waning. Google’s ad-based revenue from keywords was paying off; they’d planted a money tree which eventually created an entire forest of money trees for them. It wouldn’t be long until Microsoft’s executives behind closed doors would consider Google their biggest threat.
About this time Apple created a very clever method of provisioning content for one-and-only-one device within the music-delivery space. The iTunes store would turn out to be the goose that laid the golden egg, as seen in the following revenues. And yet, it would take years for either Microsoft or Google to realize the beauty in this fulfillment model and to come up with their own versions.
The “Internet of Things” concept started gaining in popularity at this time.
Microsoft’s attempts at copying Google’s success (MSN Search, Windows Live Search, Live Search) now culminated in the introduction of Bing as their default search engine destination for all things Microsoft.
Apple introduced the first iPhone and the first iPad about this time, noting that the same provisioning model from iTunes was incorporated into both via iOS. The subscription model of sofware licensing was born with this, if you think about it. If you wanted to write a program for either, you needed to use Apple’s software to do so.
Google has just introduced Chrome as a browser and would begin their campaign to slowly break Internet Explorer. The same was true of the Android phone and its related operating system. It would take a few years for Microsoft to catch up to either the iPhone or the Android before releasing their own app-savvy smartphone offering.
Amazon some three years prior had introduced the beginning of what would be a full complement of cloud-based services to support web development. It would take Microsoft two full years to realize that they needed to be in this space and they didn’t have their offering ready for a few years more, too late to effectively compete.
Github.com had just celebrated their first year online, hosting over 46,000 repositories by then. The world of open source was the very antonym to the way that software had been developed prior to this.
The free Ubuntu operating system was released about four years prior to this, backed by the well-funded company Canonical.
Microsoft releases Windows 10, “the last version of Windows” (they claimed). Rumors suggested that Windows would eventually go from a version-based license model to an annual-subscription model with respect to pricing. I think it’s safe to say that the market hasn’t really embraced either Windows 8 or Windows 10.
The subscription-based model for Office 365 was introduced four years prior to this so the writing was definitely on the wall: Microsoft wanted to depart from their former methods of making money and to chase the monthly subscription model.
The world of open source was offering new programmers a wealth of free code. All they had to do was to take it and make it their own. Formerly, Microsoft-friendly coding languages like C, C++, C#, VB and .NET dominated the playing field but this graphic shows how the game had changed.
And here we are, present-day. That curious number 42 now describes the number of years that Microsoft has been around.
Yesterday evening, I attended a very geeky meetup of perhaps fifty or sixty coders and only saw one Windows-based laptop. Almost everyone had a MacBook of some kind.
I just spent about two hours today installing the free Visual Studio Community 2017 software so that I could—in theory, anyway—alter a free copy of the source code for TightVNC software. Out of the box, so-to-speak, Visual Studio doesn’t want me to build this project since it uses an earlier target platform (Windows 7 or 8, one would assume).
Microsoft only wants me to make things for Windows 10.
So rather than making it easy for me to build a program that will happily work with Windows 7, they’re forcing me to jump through hoops in order to add the necessary pieces for this to happen.
Add two more hours to this and I find that my installation does not want to download the earlier pieces to allow this to happen. I’m forced to then upgrade the code to Windows 10 compatibility mode… only to find that the build fails with 528 errors.
The main crux of all these errors appear to be: “we can’t find common files”. It’s a very amateur sort of error from a company that’s been providing compilers for several decades now.
I have to think that Microsoft doesn’t want me to do anything with Visual Studio unless it benefits Microsoft. And this is the core of the reason why I suggest that they’re doomed.
Every time a coder like myself runs into obstacles like these, the usual seed that’s planted inside their head is “this would be easier with another free compiler or another language from someone else”.
Fast-forward another five years and Microsoft will have lost ground on many fronts. New software development here, there and everywhere will be via some language which wasn’t popularized by Microsoft on computers which aren’t Windows and with browsers which aren’t Internet Explorer or Edge. Our toasters and refrigerators and our cars will be powered by the Ubuntu operating system or perhaps Debian, a similar free Linux flavor. These appliances will be connected to our wi-fi and even to the Internet but there won’t be a scrap of anything Microsoft about them. They’ll be coded up with something that isn’t C#, doesn’t use .NET and doesn’t need Visual Studio in order to compile it.
The only thing with a Microsoft pedigree with some staying power could be some of the websites and services currently served up at Microsoft’s datacenters via Azure. But Amazon or Google could kill that by simply lowering their own prices for cloud-based services.